Actual result
D+29.2
Final polls said
D+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.6
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+28.6 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Connecticut | D+33.0 | 3.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2008-09-25 | 374 | D+33.0 | 4 |
| University of Connecticut | 2008-09-25 | 477 | D+28.0 | 1 |