VotePredictor
past elections

Connecticut House

Joe Courtney (D) vs Sean P. Sullivan (R)

Actual result
D+29.2
Final polls said
D+30.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+28.6
Winner
Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#PollsterFinal callMissCalled
1VotePredictorD+28.60.7
2University of ConnecticutD+33.03.8

Polls (2)

PollsterDatenPollMiss
University of Connecticut2008-09-25374D+33.04
University of Connecticut2008-09-25477D+28.01