Actual result
R+8.4
Final polls said
R+6.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+5.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+5.5 | 2.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | University of Connecticut | R+3.0 | 5.4 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| University of Connecticut | 2004-10-28 | 400 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| University of Connecticut | 2004-10-17 | 402 | R+9.0 | 1 |
| University of Connecticut | 2004-10-01 | 400 | R+5.0 | 3 |