Actual result
D+10.3
Final polls said
D+10.9
10 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.4
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Big Village | D+10.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Suffolk University | D+11.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+11.0 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | GfK Group | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+12.0 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | D+12.4 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Public Opinion Strategies | D+13.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 8 | Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | D+13.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ciruli Associates | D+7.0 | 3.3 | ✓ |
| 11 | Quinnipiac University | D+14.0 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 12 | Public Policy Polling | D+15.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 13 | YouGov | D+15.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 14 | FTI Consulting | D+15.0 | 4.7 | ✓ |
| 15 | Hill Research Consultants | D+5.0 | 5.3 | ✓ |
| 16 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | D+4.0 | 6.3 | ✓ |
Polls (22)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-29 | 2023 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-10-28 | 625 | D+4.0 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2008-10-25 | 685 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| Big Village | 2008-10-25 | 774 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-10-25 | 409 | D+15.0 | 5 |
| GfK Group | 2008-10-24 | 626 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Public Opinion Strategies | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) | 2008-10-22 | 500 | D+13.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-10-16 | 700 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Hill Research Consultants | 2008-10-15 | 600 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2008-10-13 | 608 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Suffolk University | 2008-10-12 | 450 | D+11.0 | 1 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-10 | 1088 | D+14.0 | 4 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-10-09 | 1331 | D+10.0 | 0 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-10-05 | 997 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2008-09-30 | 625 | D+5.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2008-09-23 | 700 | D+2.0 | 8 |
| Ciruli Associates | 2008-09-21 | 501 | D+7.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2008-09-20 | 1084 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2008-09-18 | 1418 | D+8.0 | 2 |
| FTI Consulting | 2008-09-13 | 402 | D+3.0 | 7 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2008-09-08 | 752 | D+11.0 | 1 |