Actual result
D+39.9
Final polls said
D+38.7
12 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+36.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Public Policy Polling | D+40.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+40.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | SurveyUSA | D+40.0 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | D+41.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Big Village | D+41.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | D+38.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 7 | RBI Strategies & Research | D+38.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | D+36.2 | 3.7 | ✓ |
| 9 | Magellan Strategies | D+35.0 | 4.9 | ✓ |
| 10 | Ipsos | D+32.0 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 11 | ccAdvertising | D+26.4 | 13.5 | ✓ |
Polls (21)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 1059 | D+40.0 | 0 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | D+41.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-28 | 750 | D+42.0 | 2 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 615 | D+40.0 | 0 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 855 | D+38.0 | 2 |
| RBI Strategies & Research | 2010-10-25 | 501 | D+38.0 | 2 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 829 | D+41.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-22 | 818 | D+42.0 | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-20 | 621 | D+40.0 | 0 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-10-20 | 1067 | D+35.0 | 5 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-16 | 405 | D+32.0 | 8 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | D+35.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-14 | 750 | D+30.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-03 | 750 | D+27.0 | 13 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-01 | 834 | D+34.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-29 | 647 | D+31.0 | 9 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-27 | 537 | D+29.0 | 11 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | D+29.0 | 11 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-19 | 860 | D+26.0 | 14 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-13 | 666 | D+26.4 | 14 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-12 | 750 | D+25.0 | 15 |