Actual result
R+23.0
Final polls said
R+13.7
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+13.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+19.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+19.0 | 4.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+13.1 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 4 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+3.0 | 20.0 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2010-10-21 | 679 | R+3.0 | 20 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-20 | 500 | R+19.0 | 4 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2010-10-20 | 800 | R+19.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-04 | 500 | R+24.0 | 1 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-08 | 500 | R+29.0 | 6 |