Kansas Governor
Ty Masterson (R) is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Governor race — about a 81% chance, winning by about 3 points in the projection, though it has tightened lately. Updated daily from 10 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' published win probability for each party since September 28, when the current model began — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of winningMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 10 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+3.4 — a 81% Republican win.
Latest news
- Cook Political Report shifts two red-state governor races toward Democrats
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved its ratings of the gubernatorial races in Nebraska from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” and in Kansas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” another positive sign for Democrats running in red state…
Freerepublic.com · October 27, 2026 
Not a demon, not a witch: Kansas Democratic candidate for governor answers a Republican smearKansas state Sen. Cindy Holscher would like you to know she isn’t a demon, and her daughter, Maddie, isn’t a witch. “I am not a demon,” Holscher told MS NOW by video chat from Wichita on Friday. “I’m a mom to three great kids. I’m a wife of 34 years. I’m an a…
Biztoc.com · October 16, 2026
'Demonic Stuff': Kansas GOPer Says Democrat Rival Is A WitchIf you can’t win over voters with your unpopular policies, call your opponent a witch! That's the tactic Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate for Kansas governor, is using on the campaign trail. The New Republic reported Masterson accused his Democratic op…
Crooksandliars.com · October 16, 2026
Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026
“Demonic Stuff”: Kansas GOP Accuses Democrat of Being a WitchWitch hunts are back en vogue with Kansas Republicans—literally.Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate in the Kansas gubernatorial race, accused his Democratic opponent Cindy Holscher of being an actual witch capable of “demonic” magic while speaking at the P…
The New Republic · October 14, 2026
- Cook Political Report shifts two red-state governor races toward Democrats
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Tuesday moved its ratings of the gubernatorial races in Nebraska from “Likely Republican” to “Lean Republican” and in Kansas from “Lean Republican” to “Toss Up,” another positive sign for Democrats running in red state…
Freerepublic.com · October 27, 2026 
Kansas Farm Bureau endorses Ty MastersonKansas Farm Bureau’s (KFB) Voters Organized to Elect Farm Bureau Friends (VOTE FBF) political action committee announced Monday its endorsement of Ty Masterson for Kansas governor.
Anvilcms.net · October 19, 2026- 'Demonic Stuff': Kansas GOPer Says Democrat Rival Is A Witch
If you can’t win over voters with your unpopular policies, call your opponent a witch! That's the tactic Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate for Kansas governor, is using on the campaign trail. The New Republic reported Masterson accused his Democratic op…
Crooksandliars.com · October 16, 2026 - Could this be the year Democrats close the 'governor gap' with Republicans?
When people talk about this year's midterms, they tend to focus on whether Democrats will end unified Republican control of Congress by winning the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives (or both). And that makes sense: Congress has the power to check Presid…
Yahoo Entertainment · October 15, 2026 
Kansas Democrats Surge In Polls: GOP Attack Ads Are DerangedRepublicans put money into Kansas Senate and Gubernatorial races, and new GOP attack ads against Kansas Democrats are deranged. MAGA Sen. Roger Marshall and Gubernatorial Trumper candidate Ty Masterson created attack ads that reach a new low! I think even Don…
Crooksandliars.com · October 5, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
11 polls · 10 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ty Masterson (R), with roughly a 81% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+3.4.
What do the polls say in the Kansas Governor race?
There are 11 polls of this race; today's forecast uses the 10 from the last 61 days. The most recent, from YouGov (2026-10-29), showed R+1.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+3.4.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kansas Governor race?
Cindy Holscher is the Democratic candidate; Ty Masterson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kansas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kansas Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, the race has tightened; Ty Masterson (R) is now favored at 81%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kansas Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.