Kansas Governor
Ty Masterson (R) is favored to win the 2026 Kansas Governor race — about a 85% chance, winning by about 5 points in the projection, and the lead has grown lately. Updated daily from 6 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 6 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+4.9 — a 85% Republican win.
Latest news
“Demonic Stuff”: Kansas GOP Accuses Democrat of Being a WitchWitch hunts are back en vogue with Kansas Republicans—literally.Ty Masterson, the Republican candidate in the Kansas gubernatorial race, accused his Democratic opponent Cindy Holscher of being an actual witch capable of “demonic” magic while speaking at the P…
The New Republic · Yesterday
Kansas Democrat Cindy Holscher Says She Isn't a Socialist, but Campaigns with One the Next DayKansas Democrat nominee for governor Cindy Holscher said at a recent debate, "I am no socialist," yet spent the following day campaigning with a candidate who calls himself a "Democratic Socialist taking on the Topeka establishment." The post Kansas Democrat …
Breitbart News · September 23, 2026
Holscher Just Ahead in Kansas Governor’s RaceA new Global Strategic Group poll in Kansas finds Cindy Holscher (D) leading Ty Masterson (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 46%. Kansas Governor’s Race Cindy Holscher (D) 47% Ty Masterson (R) 46% Global Strategic Group poll
Politicalwire.com · August 29, 2026
"Focus Is on Affordability": Cindy Holscher, Kansas Dem Nominee for Gov, on Data Center Fight & MoreKansas state Senator Cindy Holscher won Tuesday’s primary race to become the Democratic nominee in the state’s gubernatorial race, facing Republican Ty Masterson in November. Holscher clinched the nomination over fellow state lawmaker Ethan Corson, who was ba…
Democracy Now! · August 7, 2026
Lawmaker Who Wants Data Center Pause Wins Kansas Democratic PrimaryKansas Democrats nominated State Senator Cindy Holscher for governor after she defeated party-backed rival Ethan Corson. "The race became a test of what sort of candidate Democratic voters prefer in what is expected to be a challenging general election race: …
Slashdot.org · August 5, 2026
Kansas Democrats Surge In Polls: GOP Attack Ads Are DerangedRepublicans put money into Kansas Senate and Gubernatorial races, and new GOP attack ads against Kansas Democrats are deranged. MAGA Sen. Roger Marshall and Gubernatorial Trumper candidate Ty Masterson created attack ads that reach a new low! I think even Don…
Crooksandliars.com · October 5, 2026
A few lines in GOP bill blew up a red state — and one of its architects is running for govKansans may remember the rise and spectacular fall of Gov. Sam Brownback’s disastrous tax experiment, which was designed to eliminate the state income tax. Less well known to Kansans is the key role that current gubernatorial candidate Ty Masterson played in …
Raw Story · September 14, 2026
A brutal string of humiliations cracked this Republican's glass jawU.S. Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kansas, has taken it on the chin repeatedly over the past week.He wants another term in the Senate, but first he has to make it through an increasingly fraught election season.First, his campaign apparently shared an AI-generated g…
Raw Story · September 10, 2026
Canada Targets States Where Republicans Are Most at Risk of LosingCanada is making sure Americans feel the consequences of President Trump’s trade war by focusing its tariffs on states where Republicans may lose a midterm election. In Ohio, where Republican Senator Jon Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown are …
The New Republic · September 9, 2026- Holscher Just Ahead in Kansas Governor’s Race
A new Global Strategic Group poll in Kansas finds Cindy Holscher (D) leading Ty Masterson (R) in the governor’s race, 47% to 46%. Kansas Governor’s Race Cindy Holscher (D) 47% Ty Masterson (R) 46% Global Strategic Group poll
Politicalwire.com · August 29, 2026
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The polls behind it
6 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Kansas Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Ty Masterson (R), with roughly a 85% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+4.9.
What do the polls say in the Kansas Governor race?
There are 6 polls of this race. The most recent, from New York Times/Siena University (2026-09-30), showed R+5.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+4.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Kansas Governor race?
Cindy Holscher is the Democratic candidate; Ty Masterson is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Kansas Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
Has the 2026 Kansas Governor forecast changed recently?
Yes — over the polls collected so far, Ty Masterson's (R) lead has widened to 85%. The chart above tracks the full trajectory.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Kansas Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.