Actual result
D+11.9
Final polls said
D+8.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+9.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+9.5 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Abacus Associates | D+17.0 | 5.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Magellan Strategies | EVEN | 11.9 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abacus Associates | 2010-10-20 | 403 | D+17.0 | 5 |
| Magellan Strategies | 2010-10-19 | 442 | EVEN | 12 |