New York 2026 elections
Everything on New York's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 26 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (3)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
NY-3Thomas R. Suozzi (D) · incumbent · pres lean R+0.2Toss-up64% · D+2.4
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.2, held by Thomas R. Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.4 — a 64% Democratic win.
NY-2Andrew R. Garbarino (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+11.0Lean R67% · R+3.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+11.0, held by Andrew R. Garbarino (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+7.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.0 — a 67% Republican win.
NY-1Nicholas J. LaLota (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+8.0Lean R72% · R+4.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+8.0, held by Nicholas J. LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+8.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+4.0 — a 72% Republican win.