New York 2026 elections

Everything on New York's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 26 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (4)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

NY-3

Tom Suozzi (D) vs Mike LiPetri (R) · pres lean R+4.0

Lean D

72% · D+2.1

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+4.0, held by Tom Suozzi (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+0.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.1 — a 72% Democratic win. Full race details →

NY-17

Cait Conley (D) vs Mike Lawler (R) · pres lean D+1.0

Lean D

70% · D+2.8

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Mike Lawler (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+1.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.8 — a 70% Democratic win. Full race details →

NY-1

Chris Gallant (D) vs Nick LaLota (R) · pres lean R+10.0

Lean R

78% · R+3.9

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.0, held by Nick LaLota (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+6.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+3.9 — a 78% Republican win. Full race details →

NY-4

Laura Gillen (D) vs Jeanine Driscoll (R) · pres lean D+1.0

Likely D

89% · D+7.2

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+1.0, held by Laura Gillen (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+4.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+7.2 — a 89% Democratic win. Full race details →