Actual result
D+1.6
Final polls said
R+1.5
11 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.9
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GQR | D+2.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | RBI Strategies & Research | D+1.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | ccAdvertising | D+2.3 | 0.7 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+3.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 1.6 | ✗ |
| 7 | Public Policy Polling | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 8 | Big Village | R+1.0 | 2.6 | ✗ |
| 9 | VotePredictor | R+1.9 | 3.5 | ✗ |
| 10 | Ipsos | R+3.0 | 4.6 | ✗ |
| 11 | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 12 | Marist College | R+4.0 | 5.6 | ✗ |
Polls (23)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-30 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-30 | 1059 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| YouGov | 2010-10-27 | 855 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2010-10-27 | 615 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-25 | 750 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| RBI Strategies & Research | 2010-10-25 | 500 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| Big Village | 2010-10-23 | 829 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-22 | 818 | EVEN | 2 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-10-20 | 621 | EVEN | 2 |
| Ipsos | 2010-10-19 | 405 | R+3.0 | 5 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-16 | 1000 | R+1.0 | 3 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-14 | 750 | R+2.0 | 4 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-10-03 | 750 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-10-03 | 509 | D+3.0 | 1 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2010-10-01 | 834 | D+1.0 | 1 |
| SurveyUSA | 2010-09-29 | 647 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Marist College | 2010-09-27 | 537 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-27 | 750 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-25 | 1000 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| GQR | 2010-09-24 | 800 | D+2.0 | 0 |
| Big Village | 2010-09-19 | 860 | R+5.0 | 7 |
| Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 2010-09-14 | 750 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-13 | 679 | D+2.3 | 1 |