Arizona 2026 elections
Everything on Arizona's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 3 competitive U.S. House districts, and its 2 senators and 9 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.
Statewide races
Competitive House districts (3)
District forecasts are fundamentals-based (no district polls yet) — presidential lean, incumbency, and the national environment. Click one to see why.
AZ-4Greg Stanton (D) · incumbent · pres lean D+7.8Toss-up61% · D+2.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+7.8, held by Greg Stanton (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.0 — a 61% Democratic win.
AZ-6Juan Ciscomani (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+0.7Lean D65% · D+2.7
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+0.7, held by Juan Ciscomani (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+2.2; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+2.7 — a 65% Democratic win.
AZ-1David Schweikert (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+2.0Lean D67% · D+3.0
No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+2.0, held by David Schweikert (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+5.2) shifts every district 4.9 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+3.0 — a 67% Democratic win.