Actual result
R+5.4
Final polls said
EVEN
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.3 | 2.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Momentum Analysis | R+2.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 7.4 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum Analysis | 2012-09-30 | 500 | R+2.0 | 3 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2012-09-10 | 382 | D+2.0 | 7 |