California 2026 elections

Everything on California's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Governor race, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 52 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (4)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

CA-22new map

Randy Villegas (D) vs David Valadao (R) · pres lean R+1.9

Lean D

67% · D+2.7

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+1.9, held by David Valadao (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+1.1; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.7 — a 67% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-40new map

Young Kim (R) · incumbent · pres lean R+12.6

Likely R

87% · R+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+12.6, held by Young Kim (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.4; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted R+6.5 — a 87% Republican win. Full race details →

CA-13new map

Adam Gray (D) vs Kevin Lincoln (R) · pres lean D+0.4

Likely D

87% · D+6.5

No district polls yet, so this is a fundamentals forecast. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+0.4, held by Adam Gray (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+3.5; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats, giving a predicted D+6.5 — a 87% Democratic win. Full race details →

CA-48new map

Marni von Wilpert (D) vs Jim Desmond (R) · pres lean D+3.5

Likely D

88% · D+7.0

A fundamentals forecast blended with 1 district poll. The district's 2024 presidential lean is D+3.5, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is D+6.6; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+6.8) shifts every district 3.0 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+7.0 — a 88% Democratic win. Full race details →