Actual result
R+1.5
Final polls said
R+18.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+17.1 | 15.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | Siena College | R+18.0 | 16.5 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena College | 2012-10-27 | 627 | R+18.0 | 16 |
| Siena College | 2012-09-21 | 621 | R+10.0 | 8 |