Actual result
D+4.8
Final polls said
R+2.5
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.2
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Impact Research | D+5.0 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.2 | 12.0 | ✗ |
| 3 | OnMessage Inc. | R+10.0 | 14.8 | ✗ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. | 2012-09-24 | 400 | R+10.0 | 15 |
| Impact Research | 2012-09-14 | 500 | D+5.0 | 0 |