Texas 2026 elections

Everything on Texas's 2026 ballot and in its congressional delegation, in one place: the Senate and Governor races, 4 competitive U.S. House districts, 2 senators and 37 representatives — each with a daily-updated forecast or voting record.

Statewide races

Competitive House districts (4)

District forecasts are fundamentals-based — presidential lean, incumbency and the national environment — with district polling blended in where it exists. Click one to see why.

TX-15new map

Bobby Pulido (D) vs Monica De La Cruz (R) · pres lean R+18.0

Toss-up

63% · R+1.8

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+18.0, held by Monica De La Cruz (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+17.3; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+7.3) shifts every district 3.6 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+1.8 — a 63% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-34new map

Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs Eric Flores (R) · pres lean R+10.2

Lean D

65% · D+2.1

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.2, held by Vicente Gonzalez (D). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+4.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+7.3) shifts every district 3.6 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is D+2.1 — a 65% Democratic win. Full race details →

TX-35new map

Johnny Garcia (D) vs Carlos De La Cruz (R) · pres lean R+10.6

Lean R

67% · R+2.3

A fundamentals forecast blended with 3 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+10.6, held by Carlos De La Cruz (R). From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+9.8; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+7.3) shifts every district 3.6 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+2.3 — a 67% Republican win. Full race details →

TX-23new map

Katy Padilla Stout (D) vs Brandon Herrera (R) · pres lean R+15.0

Lean R

79% · R+4.4

A fundamentals forecast blended with 2 district polls. The district's 2024 presidential lean is R+15.0, a newly drawn 2026 district. From lean and incumbency the model's baseline is R+11.9; the 2026 national environment (generic ballot D+7.3) shifts every district 3.6 points toward Democrats; blended with the polling, the predicted margin is R+4.4 — a 79% Republican win. Full race details →