Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+5.1
8 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.4
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Hendrix College | R+8.5 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 10.7 | ✓ |
| 7 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 10 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 18.9 | ✗ |
| 11 | Opinion Research Associates | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
| 12 | Hickman Analytics | D+3.0 | 20.1 | ✗ |
Polls (17)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-31 | 400 | D+2.0 | 19 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-10-31 | 1092 | R+8.0 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-28 | 967 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-25 | 401 | D+1.0 | 18 |
| University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | 2014-10-24 | 568 | R+13.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2014-10-21 | 621 | R+2.0 | 15 |
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 1546 | R+5.0 | 12 |
| Hendrix College | 2014-10-15 | 2075 | R+8.5 | 9 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-10-14 | 940 | R+3.0 | 14 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2014-10-06 | 707 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Opinion Research Associates | 2014-10-03 | 400 | D+3.0 | 20 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 1991 | R+4.0 | 13 |
| Rasmussen Reports | 2014-09-24 | 750 | R+7.0 | 10 |
| Suffolk University | 2014-09-22 | 500 | D+1.8 | 19 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2014-09-20 | 1453 | R+5.0 | 12 |
| Hickman Analytics | 2014-09-15 | 801 | D+3.0 | 20 |
| Gravis Marketing | 2014-09-10 | 902 | R+4.0 | 13 |