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Toss-up · 2014 Senate
Arkansas Senate
In the 2014 Arkansas Senate race, Tom Cotton (R) won by about 17 points.
Actual result
R+17.1
Final polls said
R+5.1
8 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | University of Arkansas Department of Political Science | R+13.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Hendrix College | R+8.5 | 8.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Public Policy Polling | R+8.0 | 9.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Rasmussen Reports | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | R+7.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
| 6 | YouGov | R+5.0 | 12.1 | ✓ |
| 7 | Gravis Marketing | R+4.0 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 8 | Marist College | R+2.0 | 15.1 | ✓ |
| 9 | Suffolk University | D+1.8 | 18.9 | ✗ |
| 10 | Opinion Research Associates | D+2.0 | 19.1 | ✗ |
| 11 | Hickman Analytics | D+3.0 | 20.1 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
17 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Opinion Research Associates2014-10-3119
Public Policy Polling2014-10-319
Rasmussen Reports2014-10-2810
Opinion Research Associates2014-10-2518
University of Arkansas Department of Political Science2014-10-244
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2014 Arkansas Senate race?
Tom Cotton (R) won, by about 17.1 points (R+17.1).
When was the 2014 Arkansas Senate election held?
It was held in November 2014.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.