Actual result
R+32.9
Final polls said
R+29.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+31.1
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+31.1 | 1.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | YouGov | R+29.0 | 3.9 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 681 | R+29.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 721 | R+27.0 | 6 |