Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+1.7
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+1.7 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-10-10 | 527 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 2016-10-01 | 401 | D+7.0 | 3 |