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Toss-up · 2016 House
New Jersey House
In the 2016 New Jersey House race, Josh Gottheimer (D) won by about 4 points.
Actual result
D+4.4
Final polls said
D+6.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+6.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | D+7.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2016-10-102
Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group2016-10-013
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 New Jersey House race?
Josh Gottheimer (D) won, by about 4.4 points (D+4.4).
When was the 2016 New Jersey House election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.