Actual result
D+4.0
Final polls said
D+2.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.6
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | D+2.0 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.6 | 5.7 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2016-10-15 | 400 | D+2.0 | 2 |