Actual result
D+8.0
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+7.3
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+5.0 | 13.0 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.3 | 15.3 | ✗ |
| 3 | Tarrance Group | R+10.0 | 18.0 | ✗ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-27 | 648 | R+5.0 | 13 |
| Tarrance Group | 2012-10-10 | 422 | R+10.0 | 18 |
| SurveyUSA | 2012-09-19 | 646 | R+3.0 | 11 |