Actual result
R+28.2
Final polls said
R+17.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+21.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+24.0 | 4.2 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+21.7 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 3 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+10.0 | 18.2 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2016-10-25 | 600 | R+10.0 | 18 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2016-10-19 | 400 | R+24.0 | 4 |