Actual result
R+14.9
Final polls said
R+9.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+12.2
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nielson Brothers Polling | R+13.0 | 1.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+12.2 | 2.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-11-02 | 612 | R+13.0 | 2 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-10-30 | 771 | R+6.0 | 9 |
| Nielson Brothers Polling | 2012-10-03 | 746 | R+5.7 | 9 |