Actual result
R+2.2
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | North Star Opinion Research | R+4.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+7.9 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+9.0 | 6.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Star Opinion Research | 2016-10-23 | 400 | R+4.0 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2016-09-25 | 700 | R+9.0 | 7 |