Actual result
R+7.2
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+6.3
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+6.3 | 0.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Wiese Research Associates | R+5.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-10-24 | 325 | R+5.0 | 2 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-09-20 | 328 | R+2.0 | 5 |
| Wiese Research Associates | 2012-09-19 | 400 | EVEN | 7 |