Actual result
R+19.1
Final polls said
R+22.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+27.9
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Research Consultants | R+20.0 | 0.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | SurveyMonkey | R+25.0 | 5.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+27.9 | 8.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Research Consultants | 2018-09-22 | 316 | R+20.0 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2018-09-17 | 1254 | R+25.0 | 6 |