Alabama Senate
Barry Moore (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Alabama Senate race — about a 99% chance, winning by about 20 points in the projection. Updated daily from 4 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' published win probability for each party since September 25, when the current model began — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 4 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+20.3 — a 100% Republican win.
Latest news
Republican Barry Moore Defeats Democrat Everett Wess in Alabama Senate RaceTrump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore (R-AL) won Alabama's U.S. Senate race Tuesday, defeating Democrat Everett Wess, a criminal defense attorney, to succeed outgoing Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL). The post Republican Barry Moore Defeats Democrat Everett Wess in Ala…
Breitbart News · November 4, 2026
Senate race winners 2026: Republicans, Democrats battle for control of upper chamberThe 2026 midterm elections will feature 35 Senate races that will determine which party controls the upper chamber for the next two years. Follow along with The Post’s live election tracker for real-time results, including winners and losers in Senate races a…
New York Post · November 3, 2026
Conservatives demand competition — except in their own primariesConservatives say they believe in competition. So why on earth do we tolerate a political system in which one man effectively picks our candidates before voters have a chance to examine them?Friedrich Hayek understood why monopoly is dangerous: “Our freedom o…
TheBlaze · October 21, 2026
Trump makes 'confounding decision' in deep-red state as Dems make other gains: reportPresident Donald Trump is tentatively planning a rally in deep-red Alabama next week, even as Democrats signal they may spend money in Kansas and other Republican strongholds they once considered out of reach.Politico reported that the rally is penciled in fo…
Raw Story · September 25, 2026
‘Biggest spend of the cycle:’ Fairshake crypto PAC’s pick Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP Senate primary‘Biggest spend of the cycle:’ Fairshake crypto PAC’s pick Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP Senate primary Quick Take - On Tuesday night, President Donald Trump-endorsed Barry Moore won against his opponent, Jared Hudson, in the Republican primaries for an open Se…
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
5 polls · 4 in today's forecast · newest firstDimmed polls are more than 61 days old. They stay on the record, but today's forecast no longer counts them. Each pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain). VotePredictor adjusted (“Our adj.” on small screens) is not a poll: it is our correction of that poll, for its pollster's record in past elections and for registered-voter or all-adult samples. It is the number our forecast reads.
Frequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alabama Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Barry Moore (R), with roughly a 99% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+20.3.
What do the polls say in the Alabama Senate race?
There are 5 polls of this race; today's forecast uses the 4 from the last 61 days. The most recent, from Blueprint Polling (2026-10-24), showed R+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+20.3.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alabama Senate race?
Everett Wess is the Democratic candidate; Barry Moore is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alabama Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alabama Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.