Alabama Senate
Barry Moore (R) is the clear favorite to win the 2026 Alabama Senate race — about a 92% chance, winning by about 22 points in the projection. Updated daily from 2 polls.
How the odds moved
VotePredictor Elections' win probability for each party, rerun from the polls available on each date — hover the chart to read any day. The dashed line is even odds.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 2 polls of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+21.9 — a 92% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
‘Biggest spend of the cycle:’ Fairshake crypto PAC’s pick Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP Senate primary‘Biggest spend of the cycle:’ Fairshake crypto PAC’s pick Barry Moore wins Alabama GOP Senate primary Quick Take - On Tuesday night, President Donald Trump-endorsed Barry Moore won against his opponent, Jared Hudson, in the Republican primaries for an open Se…
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026
4 Takeaways From Primaries in Georgia, Alabama, OklahomaPresident Trump's endorsement record had a mixed night on Tuesday . Four takeaways from primaries in Georgia, Alabama, and Oklahoma: Trump's enduring strength: Writing for the New York Times , Patricia Mazzei reports Trump was three for three with his Senate …
Newser · June 17, 2026- Trump notches primary win with Moore victory in Alabama Republican Senate runoff - The Hill
Trump notches primary win with Moore victory in Alabama Republican Senate runoffThe Hill Trump-endorsed Rep. Barry Moore wins GOP primary runoff in Alabama Senate raceNBC News Alabama U.S. Senate Runoff 2026: Live Election Results, Larriett vs. WessThe New Yo…
Slashdot.org · June 17, 2026 
Crypto PAC's $12 million Senate candidate, Barry Moore, wins Alabama GOP primaryCrypto PAC's $12 million Senate candidate, Barry Moore, wins Alabama GOP primary The Trump loyalist drew more crypto dollars than any candidate so far in this year's midterms, and the result marks a big win for the industry's political arm. - The crypto super…
Biztoc.com · June 17, 2026
Crypto PAC's $12 million Senate candidate, Barry Moore, wins Alabama GOP primaryCrypto PAC poured $12 million into Barry Moore’s Alabama Senate bid, and it worked: the Trump loyalist crushed former Navy SEAL Jared Hudson in the GOP primary runoff, setting him up as the likely nominee in November.
CoinDesk · June 17, 2026
Headlines via NewsAPI, refreshed daily.
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alabama Senate race?
VotePredictor's model favors Barry Moore (R), with roughly a 92% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+21.9.
What do the polls say in the Alabama Senate race?
There are 2 polls of this race. The most recent, from yes. every kid.[101] (2026-07-11), showed R+15.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+21.9.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alabama Senate race?
Everett Wess is the Democratic candidate; Barry Moore is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alabama Senate election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alabama Senate race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.