Actual result
R+27.3
Final polls said
R+38.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+33.7
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cygnal | R+21.3 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+33.7 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | R+38.0 | 10.7 | ✓ |
Polls (3)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2014-10-20 | 661 | R+38.0 | 11 |
| Cygnal | 2014-10-14 | 807 | R+21.3 | 6 |
| YouGov | 2014-09-26 | 692 | R+37.0 | 10 |