Alabama Governor
Tommy Tuberville (R) is all but certain to win the 2026 Alabama Governor race — about a 96% chance, winning by about 16 points in the projection. Updated daily from 1 poll.
What the markets say
Chance of a Democratic winMarket prices are shown for comparison and are never an input to the forecast — a 2024 test found blending Polymarket in made the model's calls measurably worse. Where the two disagree, one of them is wrong, and the track record is the only way to find out which.
Why this forecast
This forecast is poll-driven: 1 poll of the race so far. After weighting them by recency and correcting each pollster's house effect, the model (TabPFN) predicts R+15.5 — a 96% Republican win. With only a poll or two this early, the forecast stays cautious and leans partly on the seat's history.
Latest news
Trump makes 'confounding decision' in deep-red state as Dems make other gains: reportPresident Donald Trump is tentatively planning a rally in deep-red Alabama next week, even as Democrats signal they may spend money in Kansas and other Republican strongholds they once considered out of reach.Politico reported that the rally is penciled in fo…
Raw Story · September 25, 2026
EXCLUSIVE: Close Trump ally admits he doesn't read — as only his opinion mattersWASHINGTON — The Republican candidate to be Alabama’s next governor admitted Thursday he actively avoids reading anything — because only his opinion matters to him."No, I read very little," Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) told Raw Story. "I want my own opinion, …
Raw Story · September 24, 2026
Will This Bill Save Social Security, or Kill It?Editor’s Note: Welcome to The TNR Blue Book. It’s our new daily newsletter that covers Congress and much more, but with a distinctly TNR twist: Our focus will be strictly on Democrats, liberal and progressive groups, and the fight to take back power and save …
The New Republic · August 6, 2026
Welcome to the Democratic 'Fight' ClubIt doesn’t matter if it’s Bernie Sanders or Doug Jones (the former Alabama Senator); Democrats are embracing the word “fight” as they each look to cement their status as a “fighter” ahead of the 2026 Midterms. The word has been repeated at rallies, in townhal…
Biztoc.com · July 2, 2026
Primary Results: Massie Loses And MoreLet's just start by saying that it isn't so much that Trump won in Kentucky as it is that AIPAC and Miriam Adelson won there. They pumped millions into Thomas Massie's race in order to install a friendly warmonger type. It wasn't Trump. It was their millions …
Crooksandliars.com · May 20, 2026
It’s terrifying when you think about thisWe haven’t discussed the pressing question of just how many airline personnel are members of some furry subculture. Luckily Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-His Own Private Idaho) is making this a matter of discussion or more likely monologue on the floor of the US S…
Lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com · Yesterday
Sen Tuberville Admits ‘I Read Very Little’ Because No Other Opinion MattersRaw Story reporter Matt Laslo recently got quite an admission from Alabama Senator and gubernatorial candidate Tommy Tuberville. “I read very little," Tuberville said. "I want my own opinion, not somebody else's." Tuberville soon proved he is as ignorant as h…
Crooksandliars.com · September 26, 2026
MAGA senator's ‘meowing’ pilot warning slapped with awkward fact-checkRepublican Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s warning about furries in the airline industry has run into two Community Notes after he offered meowing pilots and a convention meetup as evidence.“I know the deranged Democrats don’t like the fact that I called out the insa…
Raw Story · September 25, 2026
Senator Tommy Tuberville Doubles Down on Claims About “Furries” in AviationAlabama Republican Senator Tommy Tuberville is facing criticism and ridicule after claiming that a…
Thebulkheadseat.com · September 25, 2026
Tommy Tuberville Called Furry Culture a Mental Illness on the Senate FloorSen. Tommy Tuberville used a Senate floor speech to label furry culture a mental illness — a claim no major psychiatric organization supports. The Alabama Republican and former Auburn football coach made the claim during a Sept.
Thoughtcatalog.com · September 25, 2026
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The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstFrequently asked questions
Who is winning the 2026 Alabama Governor race?
VotePredictor's model favors Tommy Tuberville (R), with roughly a 96% chance of winning and a projected margin of R+15.5.
What do the polls say in the Alabama Governor race?
There is 1 poll of this race. The most recent, from yes. every kid. (2026-07-11), showed R+8.0. VotePredictor's poll-weighted projection is R+15.5.
Who are the candidates in the 2026 Alabama Governor race?
Doug Jones is the Democratic candidate; Tommy Tuberville is the Republican.
When is the 2026 Alabama Governor election?
Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026. VotePredictor refreshes this forecast every day until then.
How does VotePredictor forecast the Alabama Governor race?
It is a poll-driven model. Recent polls are weighted by recency and adjusted for each pollster's historical house effect, then a machine-learning model (TabPFN) trained on U.S. races from 1998–2025 turns them into a projected margin and win probability.