Actual result
R+0.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+10.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+10.8 | 9.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | American Viewpoint | R+11.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor | Dem 57% | 0.331 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.428 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.517 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 76% | 0.578 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Viewpoint | 2020-09-09 | 400 | R+11.0 | 10 |