← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, David G. Valadao (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+11.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 84% | 0.024 | ✓ |
| 2 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.428 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.517 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 76% | 0.578 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
American Viewpoint2020-09-0910
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
David G. Valadao (R) won, by about 0.9 points (R+0.9).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.