← all past elections
Toss-up · 2020 House
California House
In the 2020 California House race, David G. Valadao (R) won by less than a point.
Actual result
R+0.9
Final polls said
R+11.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | American Viewpoint | R+11.0 | 10.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 58% | 0.332 | ✗ |
| 3 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 58% | 0.336 | ✗ |
| 4 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 65% | 0.428 | ✗ |
| 5 | The Economist | Dem 72% | 0.517 | ✗ |
| 6 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 75% | 0.562 | ✗ |
| 7 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 76% | 0.578 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
American Viewpoint2020-09-0910
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 California House race?
David G. Valadao (R) won, by about 0.9 points (R+0.9).
When was the 2020 California House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.