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Toss-up · 2020 House
Texas House
In the 2020 Texas House race, Ron Wright (R) won by about 9 points.
Actual result
R+8.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | GBAO | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
1 poll · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
GBAO2020-10-155
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2020 Texas House race?
Ron Wright (R) won, by about 8.8 points (R+8.8).
When was the 2020 Texas House election held?
It was held in November 2020.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.