Actual result
R+8.8
Final polls said
R+4.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+7.8
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+7.8 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | GBAO | R+4.0 | 4.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 2 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 4 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 89% | 0.012 | ✓ |
| 6 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 89% | 0.013 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | Rep 86% | 0.019 | ✓ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBAO | 2020-10-15 | 400 | R+4.0 | 5 |