Actual result
D+13.5
Final polls said
D+13.1
6 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Morning Consult | D+12.9 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Swayable | D+14.7 | 1.2 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | D+12.2 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 4 | Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 5 | Data for Progress | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 6 | Civiqs | D+12.0 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | SurveyMonkey | D+11.0 | 2.5 | ✓ |
| 8 | RBI Strategies & Research | D+17.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 9 | SurveyUSA | D+10.0 | 3.5 | ✓ |
| 10 | YouGov | D+9.0 | 4.5 | ✓ |
| 11 | RMG Research | D+8.0 | 5.5 | ✓ |
| 12 | OnMessage Inc. | D+7.9 | 5.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Princeton Election Consortium | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | VotePredictor | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 97% | 0.001 | ✓ |
| 10 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 11 | Cook Political | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 12 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 13 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 2020-10-31 | 502 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Data for Progress | 2020-10-29 | 709 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| Swayable | 2020-10-27 | 455 | D+14.7 | 1 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-26 | 2991 | D+11.0 | 3 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-26 | 727 | D+12.9 | 1 |
| Morning Consult | 2020-10-15 | 788 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| RBI Strategies & Research | 2020-10-14 | 502 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| Civiqs | 2020-10-13 | 1013 | D+12.0 | 2 |
| RMG Research | 2020-10-12 | 800 | D+8.0 | 6 |
| Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson | 2020-10-10 | 519 | D+15.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2020-10-07 | 800 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| SurveyMonkey | 2020-10-06 | 5272 | D+17.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2020-10-03 | 1021 | D+10.0 | 4 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2020-09-24 | 152 | D+7.9 | 6 |