Toss-up · 2020 Senate

Colorado Senate

In the 2020 Colorado Senate race, John Wright Hickenlooper (D) won by about 9 points.

John Wright Hickenlooper· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+9.3

Final polls said

D+9.9

5 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	Data for Progress	D+9.0	0.3	✓
2	RMG Research	D+9.0	0.3	✓
3	SurveyUSA	D+9.0	0.3	✓
4	YouGov	D+8.0	1.3	✓
5	Morning Consult	D+7.9	1.4	✓
6	Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Melanson	D+11.0	1.7	✓
7	Civiqs	D+11.0	1.7	✓
8	Swayable	D+13.8	4.5	✓
9	RBI Strategies & Research	D+14.0	4.7	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	CNalysis	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Princeton Election Consortium	Dem 98%	0.000	✓
3	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 95%	0.002	✓
4	The Economist	Dem 95%	0.003	✓
5	Race to the WH	Dem 94%	0.004	✓
6	JHK Forecasts	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
7	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 86%	0.020	✓
10	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 84%	0.026	✓
11	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
12	Inside Elections	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	RealClearPolitics	Dem 75%	0.062	✓