Actual result
D+19.4
Final polls said
D+11.9
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.1
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group | D+18.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Marist College | D+18.0 | 1.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | D+17.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | YouGov | D+16.0 | 3.4 | ✓ |
| 5 | Civiqs | D+15.0 | 4.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+13.4 | 6.0 | ✓ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | D+12.1 | 7.3 | ✓ |
| 8 | co/efficient | D+12.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 9 | Data for Progress | D+12.0 | 7.4 | ✓ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | D+7.1 | 12.3 | ✓ |
Polls (13)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2022-11-05 | 856 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1983 | D+12.0 | 7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-31 | 1084 | D+7.1 | 12 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | D+13.4 | 6 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-26 | 1174 | D+7.7 | 12 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-17 | 600 | D+15.0 | 4 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-15 | 709 | D+16.0 | 3 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-10-08 | 800 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-05 | 1127 | D+18.0 | 1 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-05 | 1005 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | 2022-09-22 | 1060 | D+17.0 | 2 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-22 | 1078 | D+8.5 | 11 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-18 | 1000 | D+16.9 | 2 |