Actual result
D+2.2
Final polls said
D+4.6
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.5 | 0.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | D+4.6 | 2.4 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | D+4.6 | 2 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-17 | 1000 | D+1.5 | 1 |