Actual result
D+5.1
Final polls said
D+0.2
3 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+4.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | D+4.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Ipsos | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 3 | Civiqs | D+2.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
| 4 | Remington Research Group | D+1.0 | 4.1 | ✓ |
| 5 | Public Policy Polling | EVEN | 5.1 | ✗ |
| 6 | Emerson College | R+1.3 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 7 | VotePredictor | R+4.7 | 9.8 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2018-10-27 | 976 | R+1.3 | 6 |
| Ipsos | 2018-10-22 | 986 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-10-19 | 698 | EVEN | 5 |
| Remington Research Group | 2018-09-30 | 1680 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Emerson College | 2018-09-27 | 938 | R+1.4 | 6 |
| Civiqs | 2018-09-23 | 1178 | D+2.0 | 3 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2018-09-12 | 618 | R+1.0 | 6 |
| Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs | 2018-09-08 | 324 | D+4.0 | 1 |