Actual result
R+26.8
Final polls said
R+18.9
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+17.0
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+18.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+17.0 | 9.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | South Dakota State University School of American and Global Studies | R+4.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2022-10-20 | 1500 | R+18.9 | 8 |
| South Dakota State University School of American and Global Studies | 2022-10-04 | 565 | R+4.0 | 23 |