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Toss-up · 2022 Governor
South Dakota Governor
In the 2022 South Dakota Governor race, Kristi Noem (R) won by about 27 points.
Actual result
R+26.8
Final polls said
R+18.9
1 late poll · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emerson College | R+18.9 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 2 | South Dakota State University School of American and Global Studies | R+4.0 | 22.8 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Emerson College2022-10-208
South Dakota State University School of American and Global Studies2022-10-0423
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2022 South Dakota Governor race?
Kristi Noem (R) won, by about 26.8 points (R+26.8).
When was the 2022 South Dakota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2022.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.