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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
South Dakota Governor
In the 2018 South Dakota Governor race, Kristi Noem (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+0.5
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 61% | 0.149 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-039
Emerson College2018-11-032
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-300
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-203
Impact Research2018-09-226
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 South Dakota Governor race?
Kristi Noem (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2018 South Dakota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.