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Toss-up · 2018 Governor
South Dakota Governor
In the 2018 South Dakota Governor race, Kristi Noem (R) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+0.5
4 late polls · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 2 | Emerson College | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 4 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 63% | 0.136 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor Elections | Dem 52% | 0.267 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Change Research2018-11-039
Emerson College2018-11-032
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-300
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy2018-10-203
Impact Research2018-09-226
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2018 South Dakota Governor race?
Kristi Noem (R) won, by about 3.4 points (R+3.4).
When was the 2018 South Dakota Governor election held?
It was held in November 2018.