Actual result
R+3.4
Final polls said
D+0.5
4 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | R+3.5 | 0.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | R+3.0 | 0.4 | ✓ |
| 3 | Emerson College | R+1.0 | 2.4 | ✓ |
| 4 | Impact Research | D+3.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Change Research | D+6.0 | 9.4 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2018-11-03 | 851 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2018-11-03 | 514 | R+1.0 | 2 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-30 | 500 | R+3.0 | 0 |
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy | 2018-10-20 | 500 | EVEN | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2018-09-22 | 500 | D+3.0 | 6 |