Actual result
D+14.6
Final polls said
D+9.6
7 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+8.2
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 0.6 | ✓ |
| 2 | Civiqs | D+13.0 | 1.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | Global Strategy Group | D+11.0 | 3.6 | ✓ |
| 4 | Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | D+10.0 | 4.6 | ✓ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+8.2 | 6.4 | ✓ |
| 6 | Emerson College | D+8.1 | 6.5 | ✓ |
| 7 | co/efficient | D+8.0 | 6.6 | ✓ |
| 8 | Data for Progress | D+7.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 9 | Marist College | D+7.0 | 7.6 | ✓ |
| 10 | Trafalgar Group | D+1.5 | 13.1 | ✓ |
| 11 | OnMessage Inc. | D+1.0 | 13.6 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The Economist | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Race to the WH | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
| 4 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 91% | 0.008 | ✓ |
| 5 | CNalysis | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 6 | Elections Daily | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 7 | Inside Elections | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 8 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 9 | Split Ticket | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 10 | VotePredictor | Dem 90% | 0.010 | ✓ |
| 11 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 81% | 0.037 | ✓ |
| 12 | Cook Political | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 13 | Fox News | Dem 75% | 0.062 | ✓ |
| 14 | RealClearPolitics | Dem 50% | 0.250 | — |
Polls (14)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| co/efficient | 2022-11-05 | 856 | D+8.0 | 7 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-11-04 | 1983 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-10-31 | 1084 | D+1.5 | 13 |
| Emerson College | 2022-10-28 | 1000 | D+8.1 | 7 |
| co/efficient | 2022-10-24 | 826 | D+15.5 | 1 |
| Civiqs | 2022-10-17 | 600 | D+13.0 | 2 |
| YouGov | 2022-10-15 | 709 | D+14.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group | 2022-10-08 | 800 | D+11.0 | 4 |
| Marist College | 2022-10-05 | 1127 | D+7.0 | 8 |
| Data for Progress | 2022-10-05 | 1005 | D+9.0 | 6 |
| OnMessage Inc. | 2022-09-24 | 600 | D+1.0 | 14 |
| Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | 2022-09-22 | 1060 | D+10.0 | 5 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2022-09-22 | 1078 | D+6.0 | 9 |
| Emerson College | 2022-09-18 | 1000 | D+9.6 | 5 |