Toss-up · 2022 Senate

Colorado Senate

In the 2022 Colorado Senate race, Michael Bennet (D) won by about 15 points.

Michael Bennet· Incumbent · voting record →

Actual result

D+14.6

Final polls said

D+9.6

7 late polls · ✓

VotePredictor Elections predicted

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Winner

Dem

"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).

Final rankings

How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).

Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result

#	Pollster	Final call	Miss	Called
1	YouGov	D+14.0	0.6	✓
2	Civiqs	D+13.0	1.6	✓
3	Global Strategy Group	D+11.0	3.6	✓
4	Keating Research/Magellan Strategies	D+10.0	4.6	✓
5	Emerson College	D+8.1	6.5	✓
6	co/efficient	D+8.0	6.6	✓
7	Data for Progress	D+7.0	7.6	✓
8	Marist College	D+7.0	7.6	✓
9	Trafalgar Group	D+1.5	13.1	✓
10	OnMessage Inc.	D+1.0	13.6	✓

Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier

#	Forecaster	Win prob	Brier	Called
1	The Economist	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
2	Race to the WH	Dem 99%	0.000	✓
3	JHK Forecasts	Dem 92%	0.006	✓
4	FiveThirtyEight	Dem 91%	0.008	✓
5	CNalysis	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
6	Elections Daily	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
7	Inside Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
8	Sabato's Crystal Ball	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
9	Split Ticket	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
10	VotePredictor Elections	Dem 90%	0.010	✓
11	DDHQ/Decision Desk	Dem 81%	0.037	✓
12	Cook Political	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
13	Fox News	Dem 75%	0.062	✓
14	RealClearPolitics	Dem 50%	0.250	—