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Colorado President
Actual result
D+10.9
Final polls said
D+13.0
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+12.9
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keating Research | D+12.0 | 1.1 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | D+12.9 | 2.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | YouGov | D+14.0 | 3.1 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cook Political | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | FiveThirtyEight | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Race to the WH | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | Fox News | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Elections Daily | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | Silver Bulletin | Dem 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Dem 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 12 | JHK Forecasts | Dem 95% | 0.002 | ✓ |
| 13 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Dem 93% | 0.005 | ✓ |
| 14 | Split Ticket | Dem 92% | 0.006 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Keating Research | 2024-10-29 | 600 | D+12.0 | 1 |
| YouGov | 2024-10-24 | 750 | D+14.0 | 3 |