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Utah Senate
Actual result
R+30.7
Final polls said
R+34.5
2 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
R+38.6
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Predictive Insights | R+28.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+38.6 | 7.9 | ✓ |
| 3 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+41.0 | 10.3 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
Polls (2)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OH Predictive Insights | 2024-10-26 | 695 | R+28.0 | 3 |
| Harris Insights & Analytics | 2024-10-17 | 813 | R+41.0 | 10 |