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Toss-up · 2024 Senate
Utah Senate
In the 2024 Utah Senate race, John R. Curtis (R) won by about 31 points.
Actual result
R+30.8
Final polls said
R+34.5
2 late polls · ✓
VotePredictor Elections predicted
—
Winner
Rep
"Final polls" = the last ~3 weeks; the prediction is walk-forward. How this is scored →
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | OH Predictive Insights | R+28.0 | 2.8 | ✓ |
| 2 | Harris Insights & Analytics | R+41.0 | 10.2 | ✓ |
Forecasters — pre-election win probability, scored by Brier
| # | Forecaster | Win prob | Brier | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cook Political | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 2 | Inside Elections | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 3 | Sabato's Crystal Ball | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 4 | CNalysis | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 5 | JHK Forecasts | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 6 | Split Ticket | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 7 | FiveThirtyEight | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 8 | Race to the WH | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 9 | DDHQ/Decision Desk | Rep 99% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 10 | The Economist | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
| 11 | VotePredictor Elections | Rep 100% | 0.000 | ✓ |
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
OH Predictive Insights2024-10-263
Harris Insights & Analytics2024-10-1710
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2024 Utah Senate race?
John R. Curtis (R) won, by about 30.8 points (R+30.8).
When was the 2024 Utah Senate election held?
It was held in November 2024.