Actual result
D+6.8
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+6.4
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tarrance Group | R+3.0 | 9.8 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+6.4 | 13.2 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarrance Group | 2016-09-18 | 400 | R+3.0 | 10 |