Actual result
D+3.9
Final polls said
R+1.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
D+1.5
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+1.5 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Probolsky Research | R+1.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
Polls (1)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Probolsky Research | 2014-10-15 | 442 | R+1.0 | 5 |