Actual result
D+3.2
Final polls said
R+1.0
2 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+1.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | R+1.0 | 4.2 | ✗ |
| 2 | VotePredictor | R+1.7 | 4.8 | ✗ |
Polls (4)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-29 | 551 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-19 | 608 | R+1.0 | 4 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-10-04 | 542 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| SurveyUSA | 2014-09-13 | 559 | D+1.0 | 2 |