Actual result
D+2.4
Final polls said
R+3.2
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
R+3.7
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SurveyUSA | EVEN | 2.4 | ✗ |
| 2 | Grove Insight | D+5.0 | 2.6 | ✓ |
| 3 | VotePredictor | R+3.7 | 6.1 | ✗ |
| 4 | Tarrance Group | R+4.0 | 6.4 | ✗ |
| 5 | Remington Research Group | R+8.0 | 10.4 | ✗ |
| 6 | Glover Park Group | R+9.0 | 11.4 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2012-10-29 | 628 | EVEN | 2 |
| Remington Research Group | 2012-10-22 | 600 | R+8.0 | 10 |
| Grove Insight | 2012-10-20 | 400 | D+5.0 | 3 |
| Tarrance Group | 2012-10-17 | 470 | R+4.0 | 6 |
| Glover Park Group | 2012-10-16 | 374 | R+9.0 | 11 |