Actual result
D+3.8
Final polls said
D+4.0
4 late polls · ✓
Model predicted
D+2.3
✓
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | VotePredictor | D+2.3 | 1.5 | ✓ |
| 2 | RT Strategies | D+2.0 | 1.8 | ✓ |
| 3 | Impact Research | D+6.0 | 2.2 | ✓ |
| 4 | InsiderAdvantage | R+1.0 | 4.8 | ✗ |
| 5 | Zogby Analytics | D+9.0 | 5.2 | ✓ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-11-01 | 401 | D+9.0 | 5 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 961 | D+2.0 | 2 |
| Impact Research | 2006-10-22 | 500 | D+6.0 | 2 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2006-10-22 | 442 | R+1.0 | 5 |
| Impact Research | 2006-09-19 | 500 | D+1.0 | 3 |