Actual result
R+8.7
Final polls said
R+3.0
1 late poll · ✓
Model predicted
R+1.5
✓
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ccAdvertising | R+6.4 | 2.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | WPA Intelligence | R+6.0 | 2.7 | ✓ |
| 3 | Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | R+3.0 | 5.7 | ✓ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+1.5 | 7.2 | ✓ |
| 5 | Harstad Strategic Research | D+5.0 | 13.7 | ✗ |
| 6 | Impact Research | D+8.0 | 16.7 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. | 2010-10-18 | 800 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| ccAdvertising | 2010-09-30 | 442 | R+6.4 | 2 |
| Harstad Strategic Research | 2010-09-21 | 504 | D+5.0 | 14 |
| WPA Intelligence | 2010-09-21 | 300 | R+6.0 | 3 |
| Impact Research | 2010-09-15 | 500 | D+8.0 | 17 |