Actual result
D+3.0
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✗
Model predicted
R+5.8
✗
Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | D+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cherry Communications | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
| 4 | VotePredictor | R+5.8 | 8.7 | ✗ |
Polls (5)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cherry Communications | 2016-10-22 | 412 | R+5.0 | 8 |
| Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | 2016-10-14 | 400 | D+3.0 | 0 |
| DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | 2016-10-10 | 499 | D+2.0 | 1 |
| Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | 2016-09-14 | 401 | R+3.0 | 6 |
| Cherry Communications | 2016-09-14 | 406 | R+18.0 | 21 |