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Toss-up · 2016 House
Florida House
In the 2016 Florida House race, Stephanie Murphy (D) won by about 3 points.
Actual result
D+3.0
Final polls said
R+5.0
1 late poll · ✗
VotePredictor Elections predicted
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Winner
Dem
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. VotePredictor Elections' prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor Elections shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates | D+3.0 | 0.0 | ✓ |
| 2 | DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department | D+2.0 | 1.0 | ✓ |
| 3 | Cherry Communications | R+5.0 | 8.0 | ✗ |
The polls behind it
5 polls · newest firstPollsterDateSampleMiss
Cherry Communications2016-10-228
Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates2016-10-140
DCCC Targeting and Analytics Department2016-10-101
Global Strategy Group/Lester & Associates2016-09-146
Cherry Communications2016-09-1421
Frequently asked questions
Who won the 2016 Florida House race?
Stephanie Murphy (D) won, by about 3.0 points (D+3.0).
When was the 2016 Florida House election held?
It was held in November 2016.
Which party matches you?
These candidates split on taxes, health care, guns, and abortion. See where you land — and which members of Congress actually vote like you.