Democratic
Jennifer Jenkins
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Florida District 8 election, 2026
Jennifer Jenkins vs. Mike Haridopolos on a newly enacted 2026 district map. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Mike Haridopolos favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+10.1
97%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+16.42026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
2, averaging R+9.0Forecast spread
±5.3 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). The 2 district polls are blended in by inverse variance, about 54% of the weight: the model alone said R+11.4.
Republican
Mike Haridopolos
Incumbent representative for FL-8. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Polls
The polls behind it
2 polls · newest firstEach pollster name links to the poll's source; the grade under it is its VotePredictor grade from past elections. Margin is the poll as published. The ± under the sample size is the 95% margin of error on each candidate's share, from the sample size (the gap between them is about twice as uncertain).
PollsterDateSampleMargin
These polls move the forecast: their average is blended into the model's own margin by inverse variance, with about 54% of the weight on the polls (a single poll gets about half; more polls, more weight). The rule was preregistered and validated on 321 polled districts from 2018–2024. See methodology.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Mike HaridopolosREP · incumbent$2.0M raised
Spent $1.8MCash on hand $482k2% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Not Reported$191k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$70k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$67k
- Legal & Professional Services$38k
- Retired$37k
States
- FL$699k
- NY$35k
- VA$30k
- DC$26k
- TX$15k
Jennifer JenkinsDEM$960k raised
Spent $807kCash on hand $153k58% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$212k
- Self-Employed & Freelance$35k
- Legal & Professional Services$16k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$11k
- Nonprofit, Labor & Civil Society$8k
States
- FL$264k
- CA$22k
- GA$13k
- ME$7k
- NY$6k
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for FL-8; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Florida's 8th district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
YearWinnerMargin
Candidate news
Jenkins: If lawmakers keep their stocks, is it really a ban?
Congressman Mike Haridopolos recently praised the House for passing what he calls a ban on congressional stock trading. I agree with the principle. Members of Congress should not be trading individual stocks while they are making laws, receiving sensitive bri…
Biztoc.com · August 21, 2026
Cory Mills’ Downfall Came From Inside the House
“As allegations of sexual misconduct, questions about his military record and campaign finance violations surrounded Florida Republican Rep. Cory Mills, House Republican leadership, the White House and the majority of the GOP conference publicly stayed behind…
Politicalwire.com · August 19, 2026
Embattled GOP Rep Doesn’t Deny Dating Teenager While In Congress
It’s not looking good for the disgraced MAGA Representative Cory Mills.Governor Ron DeSantis told reporters Friday that he didn’t support Mills’ bid ahead of the state’s primary elections on Tuesday. Earlier this month, Florida Representatives Anna Paulina Lu…
The New Republic · August 17, 2026
2 Florida Republicans endorse Mills opponent in primary
TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Two Florida Republican House members — Reps. Anna Paulina Luna and Mike Haridopolos — shook up the state’s 7th District GOP primary Wednesday by endorsing Ryan Elijah over the embattled and Trump-endorsed incumbent, Rep. Cory Mills. Th…
Biztoc.com · August 5, 2026
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗