Actual result
R+2.7
Final polls said
D+1.6
5 late polls · ✗
Model predicted
D+2.9
✗
Winner
Rep
"Final polls said" averages polls from the last ~3 weeks — the call right before the vote, and how pollsters are rated. The model's prediction is walk-forward (trained only on earlier races).
Final rankings
How everyone who called this race did, ranked — VotePredictor shown inline (★).
Pollsters — each pollster's final poll vs the result
| # | Pollster | Final call | Miss | Called |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard Day Research | R+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 2 | Market Shares Corp. | R+4.0 | 1.3 | ✓ |
| 3 | RT Strategies | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 4 | Normington, Petts & Associates | D+1.0 | 3.7 | ✗ |
| 5 | VotePredictor | D+2.9 | 5.6 | ✗ |
| 6 | GQR | D+5.0 | 7.7 | ✗ |
| 7 | Zogby Analytics | D+14.0 | 16.7 | ✗ |
Polls (8)
| Pollster | Date | n | Poll | Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-10-26 | 500 | D+14.0 | 17 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-25 | 990 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Normington, Petts & Associates | 2006-10-23 | 400 | D+1.0 | 4 |
| Richard Day Research | 2006-10-21 | 500 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| Market Shares Corp. | 2006-10-16 | 600 | R+4.0 | 1 |
| RT Strategies | 2006-10-09 | 1000 | EVEN | 3 |
| GQR | 2006-10-08 | 409 | D+5.0 | 8 |
| Zogby Analytics | 2006-09-29 | 500 | D+5.0 | 8 |