Democratic
Megan Wingfield
Major-party general-election nominee.
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Kentucky District 2 election, 2026
Megan Wingfield vs. Brett Guthrie. Today's article: every forecast for this race →
VotePredictor forecast
Brett Guthrie favored
Safe R · predicted margin R+35.2
99%
chance to win
2024 presidential margin
R+41.02026 national environment
D+8.0District polls
noneForecast spread
±6.6 pointsMargin from the district's presidential lean on its 2026 lines, one fitted intercept and the national environment as a uniform swing; the win probability adds a decaying incumbency premium (Republican incumbent running). No district poll is blended in.
Republican
Brett Guthrie
Incumbent representative for KY-2. Voting record, ideology and biography →
Other listed candidates
- Thomas Loecken · Independent
Polls
No district-level 2026 general-election poll is currently in VotePredictor's verified polling feed for KY-2. The forecast above is the model alone: lean, incumbency and the national environment.
Campaign money
FEC reports through October 14, 2026Brett GuthrieREP · incumbent$6.0M raised
Spent $4.9MCash on hand $1.4MDebts $13k0% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
- GUTHRIE VICTORY FUND$794k
- KUDON, JEREMY$14k
- ERDEL, ANSLEY$13k
- FERBER, ROMAN MR.$13k
- POPP, MONICA$13k
Industries
- Legal & Professional Services$206k
- Government Relations and Lobbying Services$161k
- Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals$152k
- Technology & Communications$135k
- Finance, Insurance & Real Estate$61k
States
- VA$313k
- KY$297k
- DC$241k
- CA$153k
- TX$117k
Megan WingfieldDEM$10k raised
Spent $8kCash on hand $1k71% from donors under $200
Top contributors, industries and states
Contributors
Industries
- Unemployed$250
- Retired$225
States
- CA$1k
- KY$475
- TN$210
What each candidate's own campaign committees reported for the 2025–26 cycle; outside spending by PACs and parties is not included. Industries are classified from donors' reported employers. The House forecast's win probability reads the two nominees' shares of individual contributions shown here, a small term that never moves the predicted margin. Data: GovMoneyGraph, based on FEC records.
Other forecasts
We have not yet ingested a district rating from these independent forecasters for KY-2; links go to their current national House ratings. Missing is shown as missing—not converted into a probability.
Past results
Every election in Kentucky's 2nd district we hold a result for. District numbers are reused across redistricting, so older rows may cover different ground than the seat does today.
Candidate news
GOP Rep Insinuates Mitch McConnell Isn’t Even In DC
Republican Kentucky Representative Brett Guthrie insinuated that Republican Kentucky Senator Mitch McConnell isn't even in Washington, D.C.
The Daily Caller · July 8, 2026
Western Groups Warn Democrats: 'No Deal With Devil on Permit Reform'
Amid permitting reform negotiations and votes in the Republican-led Congress this week, dozens of organizations from the US West on Thursday urged Democratic leaders to reject "a reactive capitulation to energy and technology industry demands and the Trump ad…
Common Dreams · April 16, 2026
'Liberal pipe dream' | Kentucky congressman responds to Beshear after being blamed for layoffs at EV battery plant
A Kentucky congressman responded to Andy Beshear Tuesday, days after Kentucky's governor blamed him for sweeping layoffs at an electric vehicle battery plant in his district. BlueOval SK said roughly 1,500 people at its Glendale plant would be laid off as For…
Freerepublic.com · December 18, 2025
Candidate field source: 2026 House election roster ↗